Ward 26: Maldonado Safe

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Ward 26 : Maldonado Safe

Incumbent Likely to Avoid Runoff

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Friday, February 20, 2015 for Alderman of the 26th Ward with 337 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 


Roberto Maldonado 190 56.4%
Juanita Irizarry 92 27.3%
Adam Corona 55 16.3%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 5.45% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Incumbent Alderman Roberto Maldonado has a commanding 29 point lead going into Tuesday’s election. Irizarry has won union support and the Sun-Times endorsement. If Irizarry and Corona had more money, they may have been able to drag Maldonado under the 50% mark.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 153 45.4%
Female 184 54.6%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 63 18.7%
Age 31 - 45 120 35.6%
Age 46 - 64 103 30.6%
Age 65 plus 51 15.1%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60612 Count 29
60622 Count 123
60639 Count 16
60647 Count 73
60651 Count 95