Ward 25: Solis with Big Lead

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Ward 25 : Solis with Big Lead

3 Candidates Closely Bunched at 13%

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Thursday, February 19, 2015 for Alderman of the 1st Ward with 343 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 


Daniel Solis 186 54.2%
Ed Hersey 46 13.4%
Jorge Mujica 46 13.4%
Byron Sigcho 45 13.1
Roberto "Beto" Montano 20 5.8%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 5.83% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Incumbent Danny Solis has a big lead and has a chance of avoiding a runoff. Three candidates, Hersey, Mujica, and Sigcho, are closely bunched at 13% each.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 171 49.9%
Female 172 45.8%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 63 18.4%
Age 31 - 45 132 38.5%
Age 46 - 64 96 28.0%
Age 65 plus 52 15.2%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60605 Count 3
60607 Count 64
60608 Count 250
60609 Count 2
60616 Count 23