Ward 1: Moreno with Big Lead

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Ward 1 : Moreno with Big Lead

Moreno Statistically close to 50%+1

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Thursday, February 19, 2015 for Alderman of the 1st Ward with 308 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 


Proco "Joe" Moreno 159 51.6%
Anne Shaw 79 25.6%
Ronda Locke 51 16.6%
Andrew Hamilton 19 6.2%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 5.70% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

The incumbent Proco “Joe” Moreno is close to avoiding a runoff. The poll results and relative percentages is directly proportional to the amount of money each candidate has spent.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 167 54.2%
Female 141 45.8%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 25 8.1%
Age 31 - 45 158 51.3%
Age 46 - 64 82 26.6%
Age 65 plus 43 14.0%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60612 Count 12
60622 Count 152
60642 Count 11
60647 Count 133