Ward 31: Suarez Near 50%

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Ward 31 : Suarez Near 50%

Santiago Working Hard to Defeat Berrios Ally

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Tuesday, February 17, 2015 for Alderman of the 31st Ward with 297 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 


Regner "Ray" Suarez 148 49.8%
Milagros "Milly" Santiago 95 32.0%
Sean Starr 37 12.5%
Irma Cornier 17 5.7%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 5.80% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Defeating an incumbent in Chicago is difficult, but having the help of a Congressman helps. After Joe
Berrios and Luis Gutierrez had a falling out, the later has helped candidates running against Berrios
allies. If Gutierrez and State Rep. Guzzardi can help Milly Santiago bring Suarez under the 50% mark,
they can re-group for a runoff. There are two big problems for Santiago; name recognition and money.
Suarez has been in City Council since 1991 and has over a $1 million campaign fund. This is one to watch
on election night
.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 125 42.1%
Female 172 57.9%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 50 16.8%
Age 31 - 45 89 30.0%
Age 46 - 64 102 34.3%
Age 65 plus 56 18.9%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60634 Count 5
60639 Count 102
60641 Count 142
60647 Count 48