Ward 36: Aquino Emerging

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Ward 36 : Aquino Emerging

Dogfight to Get into Runoff

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Monday, February 16, 2015 for Alderman of the 36th Ward with 226 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 


Christopher Vittorio 57 25.2%
Omar Aquino 90 39.8%
Gilbert Villegas 63 27.9%
Alonso Zaragoza 16 5.8%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 6.65% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

With Sposato running in the 38th Ward, there is no incumbent in the 36th Ward. Three candidates, Vittorio, Aquino, and Villegas, will be battling it out for the top two spots. A runoff is almost certain. Aquino is starting to emerge, but in this difficult to poll ward, there is no clarity to final positions..

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 104 46.0%
Female 122 54.0%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 31 13.7%
Age 31 - 45 51 22.6%
Age 46 - 64 87 38.5%
Age 65 plus 57 25.2%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60634 Count 93
60639 Count 84
60641 Count 8
60707 Count 41