Ward 46: Cappleman Safe

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Ward 46 : Cappleman Safe

Strong Lead Should Avoid Runoff

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Friday, February 13, 2015 for Alderman of the 46th Ward with 433 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

James Cappleman 243 56.1%
Amy Crawford 131 30.3%
Denice Davis 59 13.6%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 4.81% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Incumbent Alderman James Cappleman has both a 25-point lead and an outright majority. Unseating an incumbent in Chicago usually requires both money and a catalyst, both seem lacking for Crawford.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 225 52.7%
Female 205 47.3%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 32 7.4%
Age 31 - 45 150 34.6%
Age 46 - 64 139 32.1%
Age 65 plus 112 25.9%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60613 Count 219
60640 Count 188
60657 Count 26