Ward 16: Foulkes New Leader

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Ward 16 : Foulkes New Leader

Alderman Toni Foulkes likely successor

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Wednesday, February 11, 2015 for Alderman of the 16th Ward with 215 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Cynthia Lomax 23 10.7%
Toni Foulkes 97 45.1%
Jose Garcia 42 19.5%
Stephanie Coleman 53 24.7%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 6.82% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

This Englewood Ward was difficult to poll because of a very high rate of disconnected phone numbers, however Toni Foulkes lead is statistically significant. Foulkes who is currently Alderman in the 15th Ward had decided to challenge incumbent Alderman JoAnn Thompson in the new 16th Ward. Due to the unfortunate passing of Alderman Thompson, Foulkes has a commanding lead.

The data does not support further conclusions, such as the likelihood of a runoff or runner-up.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 85 39.5%
Female 130 60.5%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 37 8.4%
Age 31 - 45 50 23.4%
Age 46 - 64 65 30.4%
Age 65 plus 62 29.0%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60609 Count 22
60621 Count 46
60629 Count 54
60632 Count 1
60636 Count 92