Ward 9: Beale Safe

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Ward 9: Beale Safe

Despite 3 opponents, Beale near 70%

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Monday, February 9, 2015 for Alderman of the 9th Ward with 566 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Anthony Beale 383 68.9%
Michael LaFargue 79 14.2%
Harold "Noonie" Ward 64 11.5%
Theodore "Ted" Williams 30 5.4%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 4.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

The voters of the 9th Ward will resoundingly re-elect Anthony Beale to his fourth term. He has a 54 point lead over his closest opponent. When “undecided” is removed as an option (after early voting begins), it can reveal how difficult it is to run against an incumbent in Chicago.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 209 37.6%
Female 347 62.4%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 50 9.0%
Age 31 - 45 127 22.9%
Age 46 - 64 203 36.6%
Age 65 plus 174 31.4%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60619 Count 95
60627 Count 45
60628 Count 413
60827 Count 3