Ward 7: Holmes at 15%

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Ward 7: Holmes at 15%

Half of 7th Ward Still Undecided

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Tuesday, February 3, 2015 for Alderman of the 7th Ward with 491 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Natashia Holmes 76 15.5%
Keiana Barrett 49 10.0%
Gregory Mitchell 37 7.5%
LaShonda "Shonnie" Curry 27 7.1%
Joseph Moseley II 20 4.1%
Flora "Flor" Digby 16 3.3%
Bernie Riley 9 1.8%
Margie Reid 5 1.0%
Undecided 240 49.7%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 4.51% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Natashia Holmes has a slight lead with only 15% of the vote in a crowded field of eight candidates. Often voters in African-American communities break late, so it is not surprising to see half the respondents undecided. Building brand identity is very expensive and in a crowded field, money will play a large factor deciding who makes the runoff.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 197 40.1%
Female 294 59.9%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 38 12.4%
Age 31 - 45 128 21.0%
Age 46 - 64 186 35.5%
Age 65 plus 138 31.1%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60617 Count 230
60619 Count 7
60649 Count 253