Ward 33: Mell in Trouble

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Ward 33: Mell in Trouble

Incumbent only getting support from third of voters

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Friday, February 6, 2015 for Alderman of the 33rd Ward with 365 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Deborah Mell 122 33.4%
Tim Meegan 88 24.1%
Annisa Wanat 44 12.1%
Undecided 111 30.4%
 Margin of Error +/-­ 5.23% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

ANALYSIS

Emanuel-appointed Alderman Deb Mell is in serious trouble. She is only getting support from 1 out of 3 likely voters in the diverse 33rd Ward. Schoolteacher and union-endorsed Tim Meegan is currently positioned to be the runoff challenger. Mell will have difficulty bringing her numbers up in a heads-up match-up.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 175 47.9%
Female 190 52.1%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 43 11.8%
Age 31 - 45 145 39.7%
Age 46 - 64 120 32.9%
Age 65 plus 57 15.6%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60618 Count 232
60625 Count 131
60647 Count 2