Ward 10: Pope Dominating

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Ward 10: Pope Dominating

Six Opponents Not Gaining Traction

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack  Thursday, February 5, 2015 for 10th Ward Alderman with 272 respondents

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

John Pope 134 49.3%
Susan Sadlowski Garza 34 12.5%
Richard Martinez, Jr. 19 7.0%
Samantha Webb 14 5.1%
Juan Huizar 11 4.0%
Frank Corona 9 3.3%
Olga Bautista 3 1.1%
Undecided 48 17.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin of Error +/-­ 6.06% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Despite being a difficult ward to poll (note high Margin of Error), the power of incumbency in Chicago is on full display in the 10th ward. Three-term Alderman John Pope is likely to win outright in the February 24th municipal election. At least one of his six opponents is going to need to catch fire soon if they hope to keep him under the 50% +1.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 126 46.3%
Female 146 59.9%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 28 10.3%
Age 31 - 45 79 29.0%
Age 46 - 64 93 34.2%
Age 65 plus 72 23.4%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60617 Count 198
60633 Coun 73