Ward 11: Da Nephew in the Lead

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Ward 11: Da Nephew in the Lead

30% of Ward Still Undecided

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack  Wednesday, February 4, 2015 for 11th Ward Alderman with 429 respondents

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Patrick Daley Thompson 160 37.3%
John Kozlar 93 21.7%
Maureen Sullivan 50 11.7%
Undecided 27 29.4%

Margin of Error +/-­ 4.82% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Mayor Richard M. Daley’s nephew, Patrick Daley Thompson, has a strong 15-point lead over John Kozlar. Thompson would need about a third of the undecided vote to win outright on February 24.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 203 47.3%
Female 226 59.9%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 51 11.9%
Age 31 - 45 144 33.6%
Age 46 - 64 133 31.1%
Age 65 plus 100 23.4%
 Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Zipcode

60607 Count 9
60608 Count 145
60609 Count 141
60616 Count 134