Mayor: Emanuel Holding Strong

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Mayor: Emanuel Holding Strong

Aggressive attacks from opponents not hurting Emanuel

CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, an independent polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios (see Methodology).  

 

February 8, 2015 n= 727 (Without "Undecided")
Rahm Emanuel 373 51.3%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 185 25.4%
Willie Wilson 94 12.9%
Robert “Bob” Fioretti 54 7.4%
William “Dock” Walls 21 2.9%
 Margin of Error +/- 3.71%
February 7, 2015 n= 969
Rahm Emanuel 399 41.2%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 182 18.8%
Willie Wilson 103 10.6%
Robert “Bob” Fioretti 65 6.7%
William “Dock” Walls 17 1.8%
Undecided 203 20.9%

Margin of Error +/- 3.24%

 

January 31, 2015 n= 884
Rahm Emanuel 369 41.7%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 147 16.6%
Willie Wilson 86 9.7%
Robert “Bob” Fioretti 59 6.7%
William “Dock” Walls 15 1.7%
Undecided 208 23.5%

Margin of Error +/- 3.36%

 

January 24, 2015 n= 950
Rahm Emanuel 375 39.5%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 171 18.0%
Willie Wilson 105 11.1%
Robert “Bob” Fioretti 71 7.5%
William “Dock” Walls 17 1.8%
Undecided 211 22.2%

Margin of Error +/- 3.24%

 

January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Rahm Emanuel 384 38.0%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 166 16.4%
Willie Wilson 107 10.6%
Robert “Bob” Fioretti 68 6.7%
William “Dock” Walls 15 1.5%
Undecided 270 26.7%

Margin of Error +/- 3.15%

 

ANALYSIS

There is little question Rahm Emanuel will lead the February 24, 2015 Municipal Election. As he inches toward the 50% mark, the only question is whether he can avoid an April 7, 2015 run-off against Jesus "Chuy" Garcia. Emanuel will need to get 50% of the undecided voters to avoid a run-off. If Emanuel is forced into an April 7th run-off, he has a commanding 10-point lead over Garcia.

"Undecided" will be removed as an option after early voting begins on February 9, 2015. This will start to reveal where the "undecideds" are breaking. At this point, Emanuel needs a little more than a third of the undecideds to prevent a runoff.

 

January 24, 2015 n= 725

Rahm Emanuel 398 54.9%
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia 327 45.1%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

 

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still much room for further development in this race. The final order won't change but it remains to be seen if Emanuel's under-funded opponents can drag him under the 50% mark

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable

reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10% voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns

CROSSTABS – January 17th Poll

Respondents by Gender

Male 468 46%
Female 542 54%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 96 9.5%
Age 31 - 45 281 27.8%
Age 46 - 64 357 35.4%
Age 65 plus 275 27.3%

*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

 

Respondents by Ward

Ward 1 20   Ward 26 10
Ward 2 15   Ward 27 22
Ward 3 33   Ward 28 31
Ward 4 29   Ward 29 20
Ward 5 30   Ward 30 7
Ward 6 31   Ward 31 6
Ward 7 20   Ward 32 22
Ward 8 23   Ward 33 15
Ward 9 34   Ward 34 36
Ward 10 8   Ward 35 15
Ward 11 19   Ward 36 11
Ward 12 8   Ward 37 16
Ward 13 13   Ward 38 17
Ward 14 19   Ward 39 19
Ward 15 8   Ward 40 16
Ward 16 16   Ward 41 22
Ward 17 21   Ward 42 21
Ward 18 30   Ward 43 14
Ward 19 45   Ward 44 18
Ward 20 23   Ward 45 17
Ward 21 29   Ward 46 17
Ward 22 10   Ward 47 30
Ward 23 15   Ward 48 34
Ward 24 18   Ward 49 24
Ward 25 14   Ward 50 19
 

CROSSTABS – January 24th Poll

Respondents by Gender

Male 444 47%
Female 506 53%

*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 79 8.3%
Age 31 - 45 262 27.6%
Age 46 - 64 353 37.2%
Age 65 plus 255 26.9%
 

Respondents by Age

Ward 1 13   Ward 26 9
Ward 2 20   Ward 27 19
Ward 3 39   Ward 28 30
Ward 4 30   Ward 29 21
Ward 5 29   Ward 30 11
Ward 6 29   Ward 31 15
Ward 7 22   Ward 32 20
Ward 8 41   Ward 33 11
Ward 9 27   Ward 34 25
Ward 10 7   Ward 35 9
Ward 11 11   Ward 36 6
Ward 12 12   Ward 37 22
Ward 13 13   Ward 38 13
Ward 14 8   Ward 39 17
Ward 15 10   Ward 40 22
Ward 16 9   Ward 41 18
Ward 17 17   Ward 42 19
Ward 18 18   Ward 43 26
Ward 19 30   Ward 44 17
Ward 20 16   Ward 45 22
Ward 21 26   Ward 46 29
Ward 22 6   Ward 47 27
Ward 23 15   Ward 48 35
Ward 24 18   Ward 49 18
Ward 25 6   Ward 50 16
 

CROSSTABS – January 31st Poll

Respondents by Gender

Male 423 47.9%
Female 461 52.1%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 84 9.5%
Age 31 - 45 239 27.0%
Age 46 - 64 306 34.6%
Age 65 plus 255 28.8%
 

Respondents by Ward

Ward 1 17   Ward 26 11
Ward 2 15   Ward 27 15
Ward 3 28   Ward 28 23
Ward 4 27   Ward 29 18
Ward 5 21   Ward 30 9
Ward 6 25   Ward 31 6
Ward 7 28   Ward 32 19
Ward 8 22   Ward 33 20
Ward 9 20   Ward 34 23
Ward 10 8   Ward 35 5
Ward 11 11   Ward 36 11
Ward 12 8   Ward 37 19
Ward 13 21   Ward 38 22
Ward 14 5   Ward 39 30
Ward 15 1   Ward 40 16
Ward 16 24   Ward 41 22
Ward 17 12   Ward 42 17
Ward 18 14   Ward 43 19
Ward 19 32   Ward 44 24
Ward 20 15   Ward 45 13
Ward 21 29   Ward 46 18
Ward 22 11   Ward 47 28
Ward 23 12   Ward 48 20
Ward 24 26   Ward 49 26
Ward 25 8   Ward 50 10