Ward 38: Sposato With Big Lead

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Ward 38: Sposato with Big Lead

Sposato Could Win Outright

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack  Monday, February 2, 2015 for 38th Ward Alderman with 485 respondents

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Nicholas Sposato 225 46.4%
Jerry Pasczek 42 8.7%
Heather Sattler 35 7.2%
Michael Duda 27 5.6%
Tom Caravette 22 4.5%
Carmen Hernandez 19 3.9%
Belinda Cadiz 3 0.6%
Undecided 112 23.1%
 

Margin of Error +/-­ 4.54%% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Michele Smith is likely facing a runoff. As her opponents ramp up their campaigns, it will get more difficult for Smith to capture the half of the undecided votes necessary to achieve the required 50% +1.

If Smith is forced into a runoff, Caroline Vickrey, is emerging as her potential rival. A run-off election could be interesting because Smith is not well liked in the ward because of congestion concerns based on her support for the residential development of Children’s Memorial. Yet,Smith who is an Emanuel ally, should have a significant financial advantage with the help of Emanuel’s Super PAC Chicago Forward.

Most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, so there is still much room for further development in this race. Kramer is within striking distance of Vickrey. 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 196 49%
Female 204 51%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 30 7.5%
Age 31 - 45 119 29.8%
Age 46 - 64 97 24.3%
Age 65 plus 54 38.5%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60610 Count 55
60614Count 345
 
 
 
 

ANALYSIS

Despite being re-mapped into the 38th ward, Nicholas Sposato has a huge lead against 6 other opponents. With Sposato at 46% and 23% still undecided, there is a good chance he can avoid a runoff and win outright on February 24, 2015. If this race does go to a runoff, 5 of the next candidates are closely bunched and it is too close to call the runner-up.

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further development in this race.

 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender      

Male

226

46.6%

Female

259

53.4%

 

 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30

60

12.4%

Age 31 - 45

102

21.0%

Age 46 - 64

172

35.5%

Age 65 plus

151

31.1%

 

Respondents by Zipcode

60630 Count

48

60634 Count

355

60641 Count

43

60656 Count

39