Ward 43: Smith Runoff Likely

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Ward 43: Smith Runoff Likely

Caroline Vickrey Emerging As Main Challenger

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll on behalf of Aldertrack, Thursday, January 29, 2015 for Alderman of the 43rd Ward with 400 respondents. 

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

Michele Smith 133 33.3%
Caroline Vickrey 73 18.3%
Jennifer “Jen” Kramer 45 11.3%
Jerry Quandt 15 3.8%
Undecided 134 33.5%
 

Margin of Error +/-­ 5.00% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

Michele Smith is likely facing a runoff. As her opponents ramp up their campaigns, it will get more difficult for Smith to capture the half of the undecided votes necessary to achieve the required 50% +1.

If Smith is forced into a runoff, Caroline Vickrey, is emerging as her potential rival. A run-off election could be interesting because Smith is not well liked in the ward because of congestion concerns based on her support for the residential development of Children’s Memorial. Yet,Smith who is an Emanuel ally, should have a significant financial advantage with the help of Emanuel’s Super PAC Chicago Forward.

Most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, so there is still much room for further development in this race. Kramer is within striking distance of Vickrey. 

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 196 49%
Female 204 51%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 30 7.5%
Age 31 - 45 119 29.8%
Age 46 - 64 97 24.3%
Age 65 plus 54 38.5%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60610 Count 55
60614Count 345