Ward 45: Arena vs. Garrido Redux

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Ward 45: Arena vs. Garrido Redux

A Runoff Could Be Close Again

CHICAGO, IL -­ Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Friday, January 29, 2015 for 45th Ward Alderman with 463 respondents.  

Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 

John Arena 211 45.6%
John Garrido 171 36.9%
Michelle Baert 57 12.3%
Michael Diaz 16 3.5%
Undecided 8 1.7%
 

Margin of Error +/-­ 4.65% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS

In 2011, John Arena only beat John Garrido by 30 votes. If Arena can’t avoid a runoff, it could be another close election. It remains to be seen where Baert and Diaz supporters would go.

With more than 3 weeks to go before the 2015 Municipal Elections, it is interesting to see a very low number of undecided voters.

 Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still much room for further development in this race. The final order won’t change but it remains to be seen if Arena’s opponents can drag him under the 50% mark.

METHODOLOGY

Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.

Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. 

CROSSTABS

Respondents by Gender

Male 217 46.9%
Female 246 53.1%
 

Respondents by Age

Age 18 - 30 34 7.3%
Age 31 - 45 125 27.0%
Age 46 - 64 180 38.9%
Age 65 plus 124 26.8%
 

Respondents by Zipcode

60618 Count 16
60630 Count 251
60641 Count 126
60646 Count 55
60656 Count 14
60706 Count 1