Ward 45: Arena vs. Garrido Redux
A Runoff Could Be Close Again
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Friday, January 29, 2015 for 45th Ward Alderman with 463 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.
Margin of Error +/- 4.65% at 95% Confidence Interval
In 2011, John Arena only beat John Garrido by 30 votes. If Arena can’t avoid a runoff, it could be another close election. It remains to be seen where Baert and Diaz supporters would go.
With more than 3 weeks to go before the 2015 Municipal Elections, it is interesting to see a very low number of undecided voters.
Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still much room for further development in this race. The final order won’t change but it remains to be seen if Arena’s opponents can drag him under the 50% mark.
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.
Respondents by Gender
Respondents by Age
|Age 18 - 30||34||7.3%|
|Age 31 - 45||125||27.0%|
|Age 46 - 64||180||38.9%|
|Age 65 plus||124||26.8%|
Respondents by Zipcode